76 Very High Risk
Electoral Votes
2020 Margin1
State Legislature Control2
Voter Suppression and Election Interference Bills3
State Senate GOP Share
State House GOP Share
State Senate GOP Skew
State House GOP Skew

Alaska has an ISLT score of 76, which means it has a very high risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee. 

Alaska’s margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 10.0%, making it the 15th closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature. 

Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Republican Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 52.5% of the Alaska House and 55.0% of the Alaska Senate, which indicates that Republicans have a majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans do not control more state house seats than expected and control 2.2% more state senate seats than expected. 

Alaska’s legislature introduced at least 10 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration.

Additional Considerations

State Supreme Court

Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state supreme court would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes the state legislature enacted. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT.

State-Specific Factors

Alaska employs a ranked-choice voting system, which was enacted through ballot initiative in 2020 and was first used in the August 2022 special election and primary. Alaska elected its first Alaska Native U.S. House at-large representative in the first ranked-choice election in the state. However, both ranked-choice voting and voter-initiated legislation could be in jeopardy if the Supreme Court adopts the Insurrectionist State Legislature Theory; the state legislature could unilaterally end ranked-choice voting and voter-initiated election statutes for matters related to federal elections.

Currently, voters in Alaska have the power to engage in direct democracy — they can directly influence state law through ballot initiatives and voter referendums, which provide a powerful check on the state legislature.7 Voter-initiated legislation in states across the U.S. has addressed matters such as establishing all-mail vote systems, filling vacant U.S. Senate seats through a special election rather than governor appointment, redistricting criteria, and more. Alaska employs both voter referendums and ballot initiatives that may allow voters to have a say in how officials conduct federal elections. However, if the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the Alaska state legislature could strip these powers away from voters for matters related to federal elections and end the federal election-related voter-initiated statutes already in place. All states except Delaware also require voter approval when the state legislature amends the state constitution; under a maximalist version of ISLT, state legislatures could adopt election rules and laws that violate the state constitution without the need to amend it or seek voter approval.

1 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
2 2022 midterm election data sourced from “Alaska Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times, and “Current 2022 Alaska general election results,” Anchorage Daily News (updated Nov. 24, 2022). Several seats have yet to be called; our data is based on apparent winners and will be updated.
3 State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).
4 Direct democracy data sourced from “Forms of direct democracy in the American states,” Ballotpedia, and “Initiative and Referendum Processes,” National Conference of State Legislatures.