states
Maine
Maine has an ISLT score of 34, which means it has a moderate risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee.
Maine’s margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 9.1%, making it the 14th closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature.
Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 44.4% of the Maine House and 37.1% of the Maine Senate, which indicates that Republicans do not have a majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans control 0.4% more state house seats than expected and do not control more state senate seats than expected.
Maine’s legislature introduced at least 5 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration.
Additional Considerations
Electoral Vote Distribution
Most states allocate their electoral votes in presidential elections according to a “winner-take-all” system, but Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes differently using a “congressional district method.” Maine allocates two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, plus one electoral vote to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district. Maine’s 2nd congressional district has functionally become a miniature swing state with its one electoral vote up-for-grabs in 2024. We are giving the Maine 2nd congressional district its own analysis for this reason.
Governor
Voters in Maine recently re-elected Governor Mills (D). Under a maximalist version of ISLT, Governor Mills would not be able to act as a check on statutes related to federal elections through a gubernatorial veto. State legislatures could enact radical changes without the governor’s approval — circumventing the usual process required for bills to become law.
State Supreme Court
Currently, Maine’s highest court has liberal majority.4 Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state courts would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes that the state legislature enacts. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT.
Redistricting
ISLT could drastically reshape the redistricting process for U.S. House seats, enabling radical state legislatures to gerrymander with impunity. Currently, Maine uses an advisory commission that gives input into the congressional reapportionment process.5 If the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the state legislature could choose to take full control of the redistricting process for U.S. House elections and strip the advisory commission of its authority.
State-Specific Factors
Maine employs a ranked-choice voting system, which was enacted through referendum in 2016 and was first used in the 2018 primary elections.6 However, both ranked-choice voting and voter-initiated legislation could be in jeopardy if the Supreme Court adopts the Insurrectionist State Legislature Theory; the state legislature could unilaterally end ranked-choice voting and voter-initiated election statutes for matters related to federal elections.
Currently, voters in Maine have the power to engage in direct democracy — they can directly influence state law through ballot initiatives and voter referendums, which provide a powerful check on the state legislature.7 Voter-initiated legislation in states across the U.S. has addressed matters such as establishing all-mail vote systems, filling vacant U.S. Senate seats through a special election rather than governor appointment, redistricting criteria, and more. Maine employs voter referendums and ballot initiatives that may allow voters to have a say in how officials conduct federal elections. However, if the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the Maine state legislature could strip these powers away from voters for matters related to federal elections and end the federal election-related voter-initiated statutes already in place. All states except Delaware also require voter approval when the state legislature amends the state constitution; under a maximalist version of ISLT, state legislatures could adopt election rules and laws that violate the state constitution without the need to amend it or seek voter approval.
1 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
2 2022 midterm election data sourced from “Maine Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times. Several seats have yet to be called; our data is based on current leaders and will be updated.
3 State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).
4 “Maine Supreme Judicial Court,” Ballotpedia.
5 “Maine State Summary,” All About Redistricting/ Loyola Law School.
6 “Ranked-choice Voting (RCV),” State of Maine, Department of the Secretary of State.
7 Direct democracy data sourced from “Forms of direct democracy in the American states,” Ballotpedia, and “Initiative and Referendum Processes,” National Conference of State Legislatures.
