states

North Carolina has an ISLT score of 88, which means it has a very high risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee. 

North Carolina’s margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 1.3%, making it the 5th closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature. 

Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Republican Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 59.2% of the North Carolina House and 60.0% of the North Carolina Senate, which indicates that Republicans have a strong majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans control 9.3% more state house seats and 10.1% more state senate seats than expected. This skew toward the GOP indicates that the state legislature, which could be empowered to enact radical federal election law changes under ISLT, may well be insulated from being held accountable by voters.

North Carolina’s legislature introduced at least 12 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration. Republican state legislators in North Carolina are bringing Moore v. Harper — and the radical Insurrectionist State Legislature Theory —before the Supreme Court.

Additional Considerations

Governor

In 2021 and 2022, Governor Cooper (D) vetoed a total of 2 bills (S725, S326) that would have suppressed votes or interfered with election administration. Under a maximalist version of ISLT, Governor Cooper would not be able to act as a check on statutes related to federal elections through a gubernatorial veto. State legislatures could enact radical changes without the governor’s approval — circumventing the usual process required for bills to become law.

State Supreme Court

Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state Supreme Court would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes the state legislature enacted. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT.

¹ 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
² 2022 midterm election data sourced from “North Carolina Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times.
³ State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).