states

Delaware has an ISLT score of 20, which means it has a low risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee. 

Delaware’s margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 19.0%, making it the 29th closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature. 

Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 36.6% of the Delaware House and 28.6% of the Delaware Senate, which indicates that Republicans do not currently have a majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans do not control more state legislative seats than expected.

Delaware’s legislature introduced at least 2 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration.

Additional Considerations

Governor

Generally, the Delaware legislature is reliably Democratic. However, under a maximalist version of ISLT, Governor Carney (D) would not be able to act as a check on statutes related to federal elections through a gubernatorial veto. State legislatures could enact radical changes without the governor’s approval — circumventing the usual process required for bills to become law.

State Supreme Court

Currently, Delaware’s highest court has liberal majority. Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state courts would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes that the state legislature enacts. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT. 

¹ 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
² 2022 midterm election data sourced from “Delaware Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times, and Charles Megginson, “Rep. Mike Raomone prevails in election recount,” Town Square Delaware (Nov. 12, 2022). 
³ State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).
⁴ “Delaware Supreme Court,” Ballotpedia.