states

New Jersey

33 Medium Risk
New Jersey
Electoral Votes
14
2020 Margin1
15.8%
State Legislature Control2
D
Voter Suppression and Election Interference Bills3
54
State Senate GOP Share
40%
State House GOP Share
42.5%
State Senate GOP Skew
-1.3%
State House GOP Skew
1.2%

New Jersey has an ISLT score of 33, which means it has a moderate risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee. 

New Jersey’s margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 15.8%, making it the 22nd closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature. 

Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 42.5% of the New Jersey General Assembly (house) and 40.0% of the New Jersey Senate, which indicates that Republicans do not have a majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans do not control more house seats than expected and control 1.2% more state senate seats than expected. 

New Jersey’s legislature introduced at least 54 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration.

Governor

Under a maximalist version of ISLT, Governor Murphy (D) would not be able to act as a check on statutes related to federal elections through a gubernatorial veto. State legislatures could enact radical changes without the governor’s approval — circumventing the usual process required for bills to become law.

State Supreme Court

Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state Supreme Court would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes the state legislature enacted. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT.

Redistricting

ISLT could drastically reshape the redistricting process for U.S. House seats, enabling radical state legislatures to gerrymander with impunity. Currently, New Jersey uses an independent redistricting commission to apportion U.S. House Districts. If the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the state legislature could choose to take full control of the redistricting process for U.S. House elections and strip the independent redistricting commission of its authority.

1 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
2 2022 midterm election data sourced from “New Jersey Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times. Senate and house data sourced from “New Jersey State Legislature,” Ballotpedia.
3 State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).

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