states

Illinois has an ISLT score of 25, which means it has a moderate risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee. 

Illinois’ margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 16.9%, making it the 27th closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature. 

Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 33.9% of the Illinois House and 32.2% of the Illinois Senate, which indicates that Republicans do not have a majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans do not control more state legislative seats than expected. 

Illinois’ legislature introduced at least 22 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration.

Additional Considerations

Governor

Voters in Illinois recently re-elected Governor Pritzker (D). Generally, the Illinois legislature is reliably Democratic. However, under a maximalist version of ISLT, Governor Pritzker would not be able to act as a check on statutes related to federal elections through a gubernatorial veto. State legislatures could enact radical changes without the governor’s approval — circumventing the usual process required for bills to become law.

State Supreme Court

Currently, Illinois’ highest court has liberal majority.⁴ Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state courts would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes that the state legislature enacts. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT.  

Redistricting

ISLT could drastically reshape the redistricting process for U.S. House seats, enabling radical state legislatures to gerrymander with impunity. Currently, Illinois uses a backup redistricting commission to apportion U.S. House districts if the legislature fails to pass a congressional map.⁵ If the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the state legislature could choose to take full control of the redistricting process for U.S. House elections and strip the backup redistricting commission of its authority.

State-Specific Factors

Currently, voters in Illinois have the power to engage in direct democracy — they can directly influence state law by initiating constitutional amendments, which provide a powerful check on the state legislature.⁶ Voter-initiated legislation in states across the U.S. has addressed matters such as establishing all-mail vote systems, filling vacant U.S. Senate seats through a special election rather than governor appointment, redistricting criteria, and more. Illinois employs constitutional amendment initiatives that may allow voters to have a say in how officials conduct federal elections. However, if the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the Illinois state legislature could strip this power away from voters for matters related to federal elections. All states except Delaware also require voter approval when the state legislature amends the state constitution; under a maximalist version of ISLT, state legislatures could adopt election rules and laws that violate the state constitution without the need to amend it or seek voter approval.

¹ 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
² 2022 midterm election data sourced from “Illinois Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times. Several seats have yet to be called; our data is based on current leaders and will be updated.
³ State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).
⁴ “Illinois Supreme Court elections, 2022,” Ballotpedia.
⁵ “Illinois State Summary,” All About Redistricting/ Loyola Law School.
⁶ Direct democracy data sourced from “Forms of direct democracy in the American states,” Ballotpedia, and “Initiative and Referendum Processes,” National Conference of State Legislatures.