states

New Mexico has an ISLT score of 30, which means it has a moderate risk of a Republican-led state legislature passing legislation to swing the state’s 2024 electoral votes toward the Republican presidential nominee. 

New Mexico’s margin of victory in the last presidential contest was 10.8%, making it the 17th closest contest. The margin of victory in the state matters because states with the closest margins of victories are more likely to flip as a result of voter suppression bills and other tactics that could be unleashed by a rogue, unaccountable state legislature. 

Currently, the state legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. The partisan control of the state legislature is included because Republican operatives supported and carried out an insurrectionist coup to undermine democracy in the last election, and have demonstrated a desire to overturn democratic election outcomes if necessary in order to gain power. Republicans control 35.7% of the New Mexico House and 35.7% of the New Mexico Senate, which indicates that Republicans do not have a majority to enact future legislation that could interfere with the 2024 election. We also compared the partisan control of the state legislature to the state’s 2020 presidential results, and found that Republicans do not control more state legislative seats than expected. This skew toward the GOP indicates that the state legislature, which could be empowered to enact radical federal election law changes under ISLT, may well be insulated from being held accountable by voters.

New Mexico’s legislature introduced 0 bills during 2021 and 2022 that would suppress votes or interfere with election administration.

Governor

Voters in New Mexico recently re-elected Governor Lujan Grisham (D). Generally, the New Mexico state legislature is reliably Democratic. However, under a maximalist version of ISLT, Governor Lujan Grisham would not be able to act as a check on statutes related to federal elections through a gubernatorial veto. State legislatures could enact radical changes without the governor’s approval — circumventing the usual process required for bills to become law.

State Supreme Court

Currently, New Mexico’s highest court has liberal majority.⁵ Under a maximalist version of ISLT, the state courts would be unable to review or strike down any federal election-related changes that the state legislature enacts. State legislatures could enact radical changes without state courts or the state constitution checking their authoritarian power. For this reason, the Conference of Chief Justices — which represents chief justices of both parties in all 50 states, took the rare step of filing an amicus brief opposing ISLT.  

Redistricting

ISLT could drastically reshape the redistricting process for U.S. House seats, enabling radical state legislatures to gerrymander with impunity.⁵ Currently, New Mexico uses an advisory commission that gives input into the congressional reapportionment process. If the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the state legislature could choose to take full control of the redistricting process for U.S. House elections and strip the independent redistricting commission of its authority.

State-Specific Factors

Currently, voters in New Mexico have the power to engage in direct democracy — they can directly influence state law through voter referendums, which provide a powerful check on the state legislature.⁶ Voter-initiated legislation in states across the U.S. has addressed matters such as establishing all-mail vote systems, filling vacant U.S. Senate seats through a special election rather than governor appointment, redistricting criteria, and more. New Mexico employs voter referendums that may allow voters to have a say in how officials conduct federal elections by checking unwanted legislation. However, if the Supreme Court adopts ISLT, the New Mexico state legislature could strip this power away from voters for matters related to federal elections. All states except Delaware also require voter approval when the state legislature amends the state constitution; under a maximalist version of ISLT, state legislatures could adopt election rules and laws that violate the state constitution without the need to amend it or seek voter approval.

¹ 2020 presidential election data sourced from “2020 Presidential Election Results” Interactive Map, New York Times.
² 2022 midterm election data sourced from “New Mexico Election Results 2022 Midterms,” The New York Times. Several seats have yet to be called; our data is based on current leaders and will be updated. Senate data sourced from “New Mexico State Legislature,” Ballotpedia.
³ State legislation data sourced from “Comprehensive Bill Tracker,” Voting Rights Lab (accessed Nov. 7, 2022).
⁴ “New Mexico Supreme Court,” Ballotpedia.
⁵ “New Mexico State Summary,” All About Redistricting/ Loyola Law School.
⁶ Direct democracy data sourced from “Forms of direct democracy in the American states,” Ballotpedia, and “Initiative and Referendum Processes,” National Conference of State Legislatures.